Thanks to precious metals, watch industry exports saw a slight rebound in value terms of +6.9% in August 2024 compared to 2023. However, the trend remains negative, with export volumes down by -9.5% in August. In terms of value, China recorded a decline of -5.9% in August, as did Hong Kong, at -11.1%.
In August 2024, watch exports fell in volume terms by -9.5%, representing 125,000 fewer timepieces than in 2023. This phenomenon was dragged down by timepieces costing less than CHF 3,000, which recorded an overall drop in volume of -11.3%. Volumes of coins over CHF 3,000 rose by 4.7%.
The call from the Employers' Convention and the Fédération Horlogère for concrete measures to be taken by the authorities to strengthen the competitiveness and preserve the economic stability of the Swiss export industry is, therefore, all the louder on 19 September in the light of these latest results. However, for some economists, such as Arthur Jurus, Head of Investment Office at ODDO BHF (Switzerland), this request will not influence the SNB, but it will prompt it to intervene on the foreign exchange market.
Against a backdrop of a strong Swiss franc and volatile exchange rates, some banks, like ODDO BHF (Switzerland), even anticipate a further appreciation of the Swiss franc over the next six months against the euro and the US dollar, as the falls in USD and EUR rates will be greater than the fall in CHF rates'. The result? According to Arthur Jurus, the SNB may have to 'step up its interventions on the foreign exchange market in order to smooth out this structural appreciation, which is still justified by producer price differentials favourable to the Swiss franc'.
But the SNB's room for manoeuvre on this point is limited. Why? The SNB holds large foreign currency reserves, which have been built up over the years, particularly during previous interventions on the foreign exchange market to weaken the Swiss franc. Further massive intervention by the SNB could now result in even greater losses due to the depreciation of foreign currencies.
However, this is not a good prospect for the Swiss watch industry. The slowdown in demand is set to continue into 2025, according to some experts, and the decline in exports will continue to make the environment difficult for companies, particularly subcontractors.
Partager l'article
Continuez votre lecture
Connected glasses: Meta and EssilorLuxottica extend their partnership
On Tuesday 17 September, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg and the Franco-Italian firm Essilor-Luxottica announced that they were extending their collaboration over the next decade to develop a new generation of smart glasses.
By Eva Morletto
S'inscrire
Newsletter
Soyez prévenu·e des dernières publications et analyses.