Holiday sales up, a sign of lasting recovery?

The year-end holidays seem to be experiencing positive trends, especially for the American and British economies, which have recently been affected by inflation. According to data from Mastercard SpendingPulse™, retail sales in the United States increased by 3.1% when compared to the same period last year, specifically between November 1st and December 24th. These results, based on overall sales activity on the Mastercard network, also include estimates from surveys regarding other forms of payment, such as cash and checks. Mastercard SpendingPulse measures retail sales both in-store and online, using all forms of payment combined, without adjusting for inflation. "This holiday season, consumers have shown up and spent deliberately," said Michelle Meyer, Chief Economist at the Mastercard Economics Institute. Indeed, the American market has shown that - according to Michelle Meyer's statements - "The economic situation remains favorable, with steady job creation and a easing of inflationary pressures, allowing consumers to seek out the products and experiences they value the most."

Analyses by Mastercard SpendingPulse™ found that in the United States, online retail sales increased by 6.3% compared to 2022, while in-store sales saw a more modest growth of 2.2%. Although online purchases are growing faster, in-store spending still represents a substantial portion of total retail expenditures.

Among the most sought-after products are those in the fashion sector, with a sales increase of 2.4% compared to the previous year, and food products, including the restaurant sector, which saw its revenue soar by 7.8%, while groceries billed 2.1% more than the same period in 2022.

In Europe, the restaurant industry is expected to increase its sales by 14.4% across the continent compared to the previous year. France is expected to lead with an increase of 15.1%.

It remains to be seen whether this positive trend is a temporary phenomenon linked to holiday euphoria or heralds a sustainable development for the coming year. Stabilization of employment in the United States and a decrease in inflation are encouraging signs. However, conflicts at the doorstep of Europe that continue to threaten global geopolitical stability could still negatively influence economic growth.