Could Any of the 2024 novelties become future Grail watches?

At this year's Geneva watch fair, as watch enthusiasts marvelled at the 2024 interpretations of the early 20th-century Cartier Tortue watch, one Italian gentleman with a suave and towering persona seemed less surprised than the rest.

Renowned watch collector Auro Montanari, also known as John Goldberger, a prolific author on vintage timepieces was already familiar with the novelties, having thoroughly examined their blueprints. His insights are highly regarded by Maisons, who often provide him with previews of their new releases seeking his valuable opinion.

At the fair, when Luxury Tribune caught up with Montanari at Watches and Wonders to decode the evolving motivations of watch collectors, he calmly pulled out a 1929 Platinum Tortue Chronograph watch made in Paris, handed it to the author and said, “When I started collecting watches, it was purely out of passion. Collectors rarely considered investment or purchased watches in anticipation of a price rise. Today's collectors, however, are inclined to invest also in watches.”

Patrick Getreide, another prominent collector with arguably one of the most sought-after collections of vintage, modern as well as indie watches, echoes Montanari’s sentiments. He notes that today's collectors want “to ensure that their passion for horology is financially sustainable” and take into account aesthetic, historical as well as investment value of a watch.

Collecting watches with an eye on their future value is a trend that has become undeniably popular “now more than it was 20 years ago”, confirms Aurel Bacs, a seasoned auctioneer who has auctioned many iconic watches, including Paul Newman’s Rolex Daytona for $17.7 million. “However,” he clarifies, “the motivation is to preserve the money spent on the watches rather than grow it because knowing that the money invested in a watch may not depreciate elevates the pleasure of collecting watches.”

As the motivation of watch collectors evolves, what do industry experts think of the 2024 novelties as collectibles? “This year it is very hard to find something entirely new from the brands”, confesses Montanari. “As the 70s aesthetics are trending, several brands looked for inspiration in their archives to produce new products that carry on the brand DNA”, he reasons.

Prominent figures in the auction world also believe that the overall launches in 2024 thus far have been "conservative”, says Alexander Bigler, head of watches at Christie's Asia Pacific. “Nobody was in a mood to experiment this year”, notes Bacs, “This was a conscious move made by the manufacturers because of rising interest rates and geopolitical tensions.”

Nevertheless, certain timepieces did earn a spot on the collectibles list for both Bacs and Bigler. Such as the Vacheron Constantin Les Cabinotiers - Berkley grand complication pocket watch with 63 complications that took 11 years to make for the brand’s client. « It was just finished and is already a collector’s item and a museum-worthy piece”, he informs.

Montanari’s list of potential collectibles is much longer, including the white Gold Rolex Daytona, Patek Philippe 5236P perpetual calendar in a Platinum case, A. Lange and Sohne Datograph with the luminous dial, Tudor Black Bay in gold with the green dial, and of course, the Cartier Tortue Monopoussoir in Platinum.

Do any of the novelties merit becoming future iconic watches? For Getreide, Rolex Sky-Dweller is one with the potential to be the next Daytona,“It is sophisticated and the most complicated watch from Rolex”, he says. While Bigler picks the Cartier Privé Tortue Monopoussoir Chronograph as a prime candidate for becoming ”a future 'grail' piece. “The Cartier Tortues are rare in vintage, and hold inherent rarity and appeal for collectors”, he reasons.

However, Montanari is on the fence about forecasting the future of watch collectibility. He says that while his generation of collectors drew inspiration from the past, “the new generation looks to the future for inspiration.” Referring to the Paul Newman Rolex Daytona watch, which commanded the highest price for a Daytona at an auction, he mulls, “I don’t know if the next generation will know of Paul Newman the way we did”.

Bacs believes for a novelty to reach ‘grail-worthy’ status, it will take time. “While Rolex Daytona has a waiting list today, it was given away at discounts in the 80s and 90s”

There is however one emerging trend that collectors and auctioneers concur will influence the future of collectibility - the growing demand and interest in independent brands “because they are the creative forces in today's watchmaking scene”, reasons Bacs. Montanari adds, “They have the advantage of producing unique pieces. Right now to ask for a unique piece from a Cartier or a Rolex or Patek is nearly impossible.”